Latest betting for the next mayor of London

Betting odds courtesy of William Hill (click table for bigger image)

At this rate Livingstone will be looking to LBC for his pension top-up, and not to you and me. So much the better. As far as I'm concerned, he makes a far better radio presenter than he ever did mayor of London.

Smear, scandal and now election defeat: Labour is a spent force

They’ve even been beaten in Wales. They’ve been kicked into third, fourth or fifth place up and down the country. The party is hopelessly split between those who really want Brown to go but haven’t the bottle to get rid of him, and those who would take their chances – heads buried deep in the sand.

Last night, at an emotionally charged meeting of the PLP, Brown pleaded for loyalty and support. It was high drama, a Hollywood moment, a time for cheers and rousing applause. In the end, he got what he wanted – a kind of support, and a kind of closure. It seems Labour finally nailed their colours to the mast, for which now they will pay a very heavy price.

Labour's Hollywood moment

Only the most delusional Labourite would dispute that heavy defeat at the next general election is looming large. All that is left is to name the date. Bring it on Gordon.

European Election: votes in Ealing borough

This table shows the breakdown of the Euro election 2009 vote in the borough of Ealing:



Compared to 2004 the Labour vote has dropped by just over 6%. Without wishing to over-simplify matters, this is roughly the same as the vote share received by the pro-Tamil candidate Jan Jananayagam. Perhaps if she hadn't appeared on the ballot paper, Labour might have fared better.

My conclusion is that the Conservative vote has held up strongly, but I see nothing in the data to suggest anything other than a very tight contest at the next general election, especially in Central Ealing.